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Multi-criteria spatialization of soil organic carbon sequestration potential from agricultural intensification in Senegal

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Abstract

On the eve of the 15th climate negotiations conference in Copenhagen, the pressure to assess all climate mitigation options is mounting. In this study, a bio-physic model and a socio-economic model were designed and coupled to assess the carbon sequestration potential of agricultural intensification in Senegal. The biophysical model is a multiple linear regression, calibrated and tested on a dataset of long-term agricultural trials established in West Africa. The socio-economic model integrates both financial and environmental costs related to considered practice changes. Both models are spatially explicit and the resulting spatial patterns were computed and displayed over Senegal with a geographic information system. The national potential from large-scale intensification was assessed at 0.65–0.83 MtC. With regards to local-scaled intensification as local projects, the most profitable areas were identified in agricultural expansion regions (especially Casamance), while the areas that meet the current financial additionality criteria of the Clean Development Mechanism were located in the northern part of the Peanut Basin. Using the current relevant mode of carbon valuation (Certified Emission Reductions), environmental benefits are small compared to financial benefits. This picture is radically changed if “avoided deforestation”, a likely consequence of agricultural intensification, is accounted for as the greenhouse gases sink capacity of projects increases by an average of a hundred-fold over Senegal.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR Eco&Sols, Montpellier, France

    Valentin Bellassen, Raphaël J. Manlay, Martial Bernoux & Jean-Luc Chotte

  2. Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts (AgroParisTech—ENGREF), Montpellier, France

    Valentin Bellassen & Raphaël J. Manlay

  3. Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), UMR TETIS, Montpellier, France

    Jean-Pierre Chéry

  4. Centre National du Machinisme Agricole, du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Foréts (CEMAGREF), UMR TETIS, Montpellier, France

    Jean-Pierre Chéry

  5. Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), UMR CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France

    Vincent Gitz

  6. Centre de Suivi Ecologique (CSE), Dakar, Senegal

    Assize Touré

  7. LSCE–Orme, Bât. 712, Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France

    Valentin Bellassen

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Bellassen, V., Manlay, R.J., Chéry, JP. et al. Multi-criteria spatialization of soil organic carbon sequestration potential from agricultural intensification in Senegal. Climatic Change 98, 213–243 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9635-x

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