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Simulating Societal Change

Counterfactual Modelling for Social and Policy Inquiry

  • Book
  • © 2019

Overview

Authors:
  1. Peter Davis

    1. Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

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    You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

  2. Roy Lay-Yee

    1. COMPASS (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences) Research Centre, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

  • Features a full-scale, realistic, working simulation model of society based on demographic and social information and transitioning through time
  • Contains a comprehensive description of the construction of the working model, together with details of a novel open-source micro-simulation method that will facilitate transfer, application and learning across sites
  • Includes worked examples of key policy and substantive questions tested with the simulation model against real data

Part of the book series: Computational Social Sciences (CSS)

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Table of contents (11 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-ix
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  2. Introduction

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 1-9

  3. Conceptual and Analytical Foundations

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 11-20

  4. SociaLab: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 21-31

  5. Tracking Societal Change: Its Major Components

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 33-40

  6. Data Preparation

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 41-66

  7. Statistical Analysis

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 67-80

  8. Simulation

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 81-95

  9. The “Seven Ages”: A Framework for Social and Policy Issues

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 97-111

  10. Tracking Societal Change: Descriptive Results

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 113-127

  11. “What If?”: Counterfactual Modelling with SociaLab

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 129-151

  12. Conclusion

    • Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee
    Pages 153-165

  13. Back Matter

    Pages 167-245
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Keywords

About this book

This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. The model is based on the example of New Zealand, but will be applicable to other countries. It is expected that collaborators in other countries can emulate this example with their data systems for teaching and policy purposes, producing a cross-national "collaboratory". This enterprise will evolve with, and to a degree independently of, the book itself, with a supporting website as well as teaching and scientific initiatives. Readers of this text will, for the first time, have a simulation-based working model of society that can be interrogated for policy and substantive purposes. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals from various disciplines working within the social sciences, particularly on matters of demography and public policy.

Authors and Affiliations

  • Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    Peter Davis

  • COMPASS (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences) Research Centre, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

    Roy Lay-Yee

About the authors

Peter Davis is Honorary Professor in the Department of Statistics and Emeritus Professor in Population Health and Social Science, at the University of Auckland. He was founding director of  the COMPASS (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences) Research Centre and recently completed a two-year James Cook Fellowship funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand. He has also held the position of Senior Editor (Health Policy) at Social Science and Medicine.



Roy Lay-Yee is Senior Research Fellow at the COMPASS Research Centre, University of Auckland, New Zealand. His research interests include health services utilisation, use of official data, social simulation,ageing, social determinants and inequalities, and social connectedness.

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