Dynamic Demographic Analysis

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-viii

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2. Introduction

   • Robert Schoen

   Pages 1-6

3. Analyzing Dynamic Fertility

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 7-7

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   2. Amplified Changes: An Analysis of Four Dynamic Fertility Models

      • Joshua R. Goldstein, Thomas Cassidy

      Pages 9-29

4. Dynamic Mortality and Morbidity

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 31-31

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   2. Am I Halfway? Life Lived = Expected Life

      • Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Virginia Zarulli

      Pages 33-50

   3. Revisiting Life Expectancy Rankings in Countries that Have Experienced Fast Mortality Decline

      • Michel Guillot, Vladimir Canudas-Romo

      Pages 51-67

   4. Changing Mortality Patterns and Their Predictability: The Case of the United States

      • Christina Bohk, Roland Rau

      Pages 69-89

   5. Modeling the Dynamics of an HIV Epidemic

      • Jason R. Thomas, Le Bao

      Pages 91-114

5. Analyzing Heterogeneity

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 115-115

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   2. Revisiting Mortality Deceleration Patterns in a Gamma-Gompertz-Makeham Framework

      • Filipe Ribeiro, Trifon I. Missov

      Pages 117-146

   3. Demographic Consequences of Barker Frailty

      • Alberto Palloni, Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez

      Pages 147-176

   4. Mortality Crossovers from Dynamic Subpopulation Reordering

      • Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, Felix Elwert

      Pages 177-199

6. Extending Stationary and Stable Population Analysis

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 201-201

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   2. The Continuing Retreat of Marriage: Figures from Marital Status Life Tables for United States Females, 2000–2005 and 2005–2010

      • Robert Schoen

      Pages 203-215

   3. Emigration and The Stable Population Model: Migration Effects on the Demographic Structure of the Sending Country

      • Cristina Bradatan

      Pages 217-225

   4. Exploring Stable Population Concepts from the Perspective of Cohort Change Ratios: Estimating the Time to Stability and Intrinsic r from Initial Information and Components of Change

      • David A. Swanson, Lucky M. Tedrow, Jack Baker

      Pages 227-258

7. The Dynamics of Population Size and Structure

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 259-259

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   2. Estimating the Demographic Dynamic of Small Areas with the Kalman Filter

      • Manuel Ordorica-Mellado, Víctor M. García-Guerrero

      Pages 261-271

   3. Are the Pension Systems of Low Fertility Populations Sustainable?

      • Nan Li

      Pages 273-283

This volume presents state of the art analyses from scholars dealing with a range of demographic topics of current concern, including longevity, mortality and morbidity, migration, and how population composition impacts intergenerational transfer schemes.  New approaches are applied to such issues as measuring changes in cohort survivorship in low mortality populations, patterns of mortality improvement at older ages, and the consequences of heterogeneity in the susceptibility to death. Studies examine models of the current status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, advance present methods for estimating population change in small areas, and strive to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects.  In sum, the book addresses key contemporary issues in measuring and modeling dynamic populations, and advances the frontier of dynamic demography.   

• Age-period-cohort analyses
• Geographical mobility
• Migration models
• Morbidity models
• Mortality Models
• Pension dynamics

• Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University Population Research Institute, University Park, USA

  Robert Schoen

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